Central Michigan vs San Jose State Prediction: Odds, Analysis & Week 1 Pick

Central michigan vs san jose state
central michigan vs san jose state prediction

A Season-Opener Packed with Subplots: New Coaches, Turnover Troubles, and a Late-Night Stage

The 2025 college football season kicks off with a fascinating non-conference showdown as the San Jose State Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas under the Friday night lights of CEFCU Stadium. For fans of advanced metrics and coaching pedigrees, this game offers a compelling study in contrasts.

On one sideline stands Ken Niumatalolo, the legendary former Navy coach entering his second year with the Spartans after surprising the college football world by ditching the triple option for a high-flying passing attack. On the other is Matt Drinkall, making his head coaching debut after spending five years as an assistant under Jeff Monken at Army—meaning he spent four seasons preparing to face Niumatalolo’s teams.

The result? A late-August matchup that feels like a mid-level bowl game with significant implications for both programs’ bowl eligibility hopes.

Our prediction: San Jose State 30, Central Michigan 17

Game Information at a Glance

  • Matchup: Central Michigan Chippewas at San Jose State Spartans
  • Date: Friday, August 28, 2025
  • Time: 10:30 PM ET / 7:30 PM PT
  • Location: CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, California
  • TV: FS1 (Trent Rush play-by-play, Will Blackmon analyst)
  • Radio: 98.5 WUPS-FM (CMU) / 860 AM The Answer (SJSU)
  • Betting Line: San Jose State -13.5 | Over/Under: 51.5 (DraftKings)
  • All-Time Series: Tied 1-1 (Last meeting: 1990 California Bowl, SJSU 48-24)

San Jose State Spartans Preview: Continuity Meets Explosive Potential

Offensive Identity: Air Raid, Version 2.0

The biggest storyline out of San Jose last season was Ken Niumatalolo’s philosophical about-face. After decades commanding the Navy triple option, he installed a fast-paced, passing-oriented offense that ranked as the best in the Mountain West and fifth nationally with 321.8 passing yards per game. The Spartans also ranked 10th in the nation with 31 passing touchdowns while attempting the third-most passes in college football .

That production came with a caveat: superstar receiver Nick Nash, who set multiple FBS records in 2024, has departed for the NFL. Replacing his production will require a committee approach, but the system remains intact.

Personnel to Watch

Quarterback Walker Eget (Senior)
Eget enters 2025 as the full-time starter after appearing in 12 games with seven starts last season. He threw for 2,514 yards and 13 touchdowns while learning on the job . With a full offseason as the clear QB1, expect improved command and decision-making.

Running Back Floyd Chalk IV
The Grambling State transfer broke out in 2024 with 721 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 154 carries . He provides the perfect complement to the passing attack and should see increased opportunities behind an experienced line.

Receiving Corps
Without Nash, the Spartans will rely on:

  • Danny Scudero (Sacramento State transfer): 53 receptions, 667 yards, 5 TDs in 2024
  • Matthew Coleman: 34 receptions, 401 yards, 2 TDs
  • Leland Smith (Purdue transfer): Deep threat with big-play potential
  • Jackson Cannan (Tight end): 28 catches, 314 yards, 2 scores

Offensive Line
All five starters return with starting experience:

  • LT Peseti Lapuaho (13 starts at RT in 2024, now moving to left side)
  • LG Sione Nomani (6 starts)
  • C Joseph Harbert (2 starts)
  • RG Tyler Chen (experience at all three interior spots)
  • RT Nate Hale (first-time starter, 12 games played in 2024)

Defensive Outlook: Turnover Machines

The Spartans defense operates out of a 3-4 base alignment and finished middling in total defense (84th nationally, 380.6 YPG allowed) . However, they excelled in one critical area: forcing turnovers.

San Jose State ranked fourth in the NCAA with 2.2 takeaways per game and carries a 13-game turnover streak into this matchup . That streak feels particularly ominous given Central Michigan’s 2024 struggles.

Jordan Pollard anchors the defense at linebacker. The first-team All-MWC selection and Nagurski/Bednarik Award watch list member posted 115 tackles, 14 tackles-for-loss, two sacks, and an interception in 2024 . He’s joined by an experienced group including Taniela Latu, Noah McNeill-Franklin, and Ethan Powell.

The secondary returns Isiah Revis (72 tackles, 2 INTs) and captain Jalen Apalit-Williams, while cornerback additions include former four-star Washington transfer Caleb Presley.

Central Michigan Chippewas Preview: A Complete Reset

The Drinkall Era Begins

Matt Drinkall inherits a program coming off what can generously be described as a “draining and emotional” 2024 campaign. Injuries mounted, off-field dramatics disrupted the season, and the result was a relative cleaning of the house . Now Drinkall brings his “infectious energy” and an aggressive mindset to Mount Pleasant.

The offensive scheme will feature a fast-paced pistol/shotgun-based spread option—familiar territory for someone coming from the Army coaching tree. The defense will align in a downhill 3-4.

Offensive Personnel: Fresh Faces Everywhere

Quarterback Competition
Drinkall has indicated he’s open to playing multiple quarterbacks:

  • Joe Labas (Iowa transfer): 1,114 yards, 7 TDs, 7 INTs in 5 starts before 2024 injury
  • Jadyn Glasser: 439 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs; hero of last season’s Victory Cannon game
  • Angel Flores (Northern Arizona transfer): New to the system

Running Back
All three primary contributors from 2024 graduated, creating a complete reset:

  • Trey Cornist (Tulane transfer): Won the starting job after averaging 6.8 YPC in limited 2024 action
  • Nahree Biggins: 19 carries, 136 yards in 2024
  • Brock Townsend: 5 carries, 14 yards in 2024

All three will rotate as Drinkall prioritizes establishing the run.

Wide Receivers
Encouraging news: big-play threats Tyson Davis and Langston Lewis return after missing 2024 with season-ending injuries. Former Wisconsin receiver Tommy McIntosh (6’5″, 210 lbs) adds a physical presence. Tight ends DeCorion “DC” Temple (8 starts in 2024) and Nathan vanTimmeren will factor in short-yardage situations.

Offensive Line
Zero returning starters. The unit features:

  • LG John Iannuzzi: 20 consecutive starts at FCS Columbia
  • C Ryan Blum: Primary backup in 2024
  • RG Matthew Nehf: Only lineman with starting experience (2 starts in 2024)
  • RT Martin Koivisto: Primary backup
  • LT Jacob Russell: 11 starts at FCS Valparaiso

Defensive Personnel: The Bright Spot

Unlike the offense, the defense returns most of its starters—a welcome sign for a team breaking in new offensive pieces.

Defensive Line

  • Michael Heldman (DE): 28 tackles, 6 TFL in 2024
  • Rusty VanWetzinga (DE): Redshirt freshman, Iowa transfer
  • DJ Bennett (DE rotation): Staff high on his immediate impact potential
  • Jonathan Decker (NT): 6’5″, 305 lbs, first starting opportunity after five seasons waiting

Linebackers

  • Jordan Kwiatkowski: The anchor. Led team with 96 tackles, 9.5 TFL, and 1 INT in 2024
  • Lawai’a Brown: First starting opportunity after 66 tackles in three seasons
  • Dakota Cochran: 54 tackles, 11 TFL in 2024
  • Xavier White: Redshirt freshman getting starting nod at outside linebacker

Secondary
Three starters return despite losing four-year starter Donte Kent:

  • Jaion Jackson (CB): 38 tackles, 4 PBU
  • Caleb Spann (S): 61 tackles, 6 PBU
  • Elijah Rikard (S): 56 tackles, 3 TFL
  • Brenden Deasfernandes: Versatile contributor at corner and safety
  • Aakeem Snell: Recorded one of CMU’s two INTs in 2024

Why Central Michigan Will Cover (or Win)

Defensive Continuity
While the offense searches for chemistry, the defense returns most starters. Jordan Kwiatkowski is a legitimate MAC standout, and the secondary has experience even without Kent. If the offense can avoid three-and-outs and sustain a few drives, the defense can keep this game within reach .

The Unknown Factor
Drinkall’s offense remains something of a mystery. San Jose State has prepared based on film study, but with three quarterbacks competing and a completely new offensive line, the Spartans may not know exactly what they’re facing until game speed .

Motivation Spotlight
Playing as the only late-night game on the national slate (FS1) provides a “us against the world” opportunity for a program desperate to prove last year was an anomaly. Drinkall’s energy could translate to early-game execution .

Why San Jose State Will Win (and Cover)

The Turnover Problem
Let’s address the elephant in the room: Central Michigan’s 2024 turnover margin was minus-22. That’s not a typo. The defense generated only five takeaways all season, with zero turnovers forced in nine games . Meanwhile, San Jose State’s defense ranked fourth nationally in takeaways and brings a 13-game turnover streak into this game .

Even with new offensive personnel, breaking in a quarterback against a defense that feasts on mistakes is a recipe for disaster.

Offensive Line Disparity
This is arguably the biggest mismatch on paper. San Jose State returns all five starters with game experience. They’ll be blocking for Floyd Chalk IV, who rushed for 10 touchdowns in 2024. Central Michigan’s defensive line features two transfers and a first-time starting nose tackle .

The Chippewas’ offensive line, meanwhile, features zero returning starters protecting a quarterback who may be seeing his first live action in this system. Something has to give.

Jordan Pollard
The All-MWC linebacker is exactly the type of player who ruins debut performances. He’s experienced, instinctive, and capable of diagnosing spread option concepts quickly. Expect him to be around the ball constantly .

The Coaching Chess Match: Army-Navy, West Coast Edition

This game features a fascinating subplot: Matt Drinkall spent five years preparing for Ken Niumatalolo’s Navy teams while at Army. He knows the coach. He knows the discipline. He knows the culture .

But here’s the twist: Niumatalolo no longer runs the triple option. He’s running an entirely different offense at San Jose State—a fast-paced passing attack that looks nothing like the systems Drinkall studied on Army-Navy game film.

Drinkall may be preparing for the man, but he’s not preparing for the offense. That gives Niumatalolo a schematic advantage in Week 1 .

Final Prediction: San Jose State 30, Central Michigan 17

This game follows a familiar script for rebuilding programs facing stable ones. Central Michigan will show fight early—Drinkall’s energy and defensive continuity should keep things interesting for a half. Jordan Kwiatkowski will make plays, and the Chippewas offense might find enough rhythm to put together one sustained scoring drive.

But eventually, the combination of San Jose State’s veteran offensive line, turnover-creating defense, and offensive firepower will prove too much. Walker Eget will find his receivers on schedule, Floyd Chalk IV will wear down the CMU front, and Jordan Pollard will force at least one critical takeaway that swings momentum permanently.

The Chippewas will cover the first-half spread, but the Spartans pull away in the third quarter behind a 14-0 run that decides the game.

Final Score: San Jose State 30, Central Michigan 17
The Pick: San Jose State -13.5 (with moderate confidence)
Confidence Rating: 3 out of 5

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What time does San Jose State vs Central Michigan start?
A: Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 PM Eastern Time (7:30 PM Pacific) on Friday, August 28, 2025.

Q: What channel is the San Jose State game on?
A: The game will be broadcast nationally on FS1.

Q: Who is favored in San Jose State vs Central Michigan?
A: San Jose State opened as a 12.5-point favorite and has been bet up to -13.5 at most sportsbooks.

Q: What is the over/under for the game?
A: The over/under is set at 51.5 points.

Q: Who are the key players to watch?
A: For San Jose State, watch QB Walker Eget, RB Floyd Chalk IV, and LB Jordan Pollard. For Central Michigan, watch LB Jordan Kwiatkowski and the quarterback rotation of Joe Labas and Jadyn Glasser.

Q: What is the all-time series record?
A: The series is tied 1-1. San Jose State won the most recent meeting in the 1990 California Bowl (48-24).

Betting Trends and Line Movement

SportsbookCurrent LineOver/UnderMovement
DraftKingsSJSU -13.551.5Opened -12.5
BetMGMSJSU -13.551.5
CaesarsSJSU -13.551.5
FanDuelSJSU -13.551.5

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